Banning Kalshi & Polymarket Fuels Interest, Study Finds

Regulatory bans on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are driving higher public search interest rather than suppressing it, according to new research from independent online casino reviewer CasinoReviews.net. The study found global attention to the two platforms is fuelled far more by contested political elections than by the regulatory battles that dominate their press coverage.

The research draws on a full year of primary Google Trenhttps://www.electionguide.org/ds data, covering September 2025 through September 2026, cross-referenced against the IFES ElectionGuide.org global election calendar and dated regulatory reporting. It analysed search behavior for both Kalshi and Polymarket across 51 countries.

The standout finding is that bans correlate with, rather than against, search interest: eight of the top 15 countries by Polymarket search share, and four of the top 15 for Kalshi, are jurisdictions that currently restrict or have formally banned prediction markets. Search interest also regularly peaks in line with political elections, particularly closely contested races. The single highest point in worldwide Polymarket search interest over the study period came during Peru’s presidential runoff on June 7, 2026, while the second-largest sustained peak occurred during Hungary’s parliamentary election and Peru’s initial presidential vote, both held April 12, 2026.

The research also found that Kalshi trades more money than Polymarket but loses the global search-attention race almost everywhere. Kalshi narrowly leads Polymarket in its home US market — 21% versus 19% search share — but falls to single digits across nearly every other country studied, underscoring Polymarket’s broader international awareness compared with a much more US-centric Kalshi.

Findings also point to at least one platform deliberately marketing into a country where it is banned: Polymarket is reportedly hiring Mandarin-speaking staff and building Lunar New Year-specific betting markets despite being blocked by China’s Great Firewall. That points to a broader conclusion in the research — geo-blocking may be a weak tool for reducing public exposure to prediction markets. Hungary’s restriction is IP-based and openly acknowledged as bypassable by VPN in the regulator’s own statement, while China’s Great Firewall method still routes hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts per month through VPN workarounds.

The study highlights a clear problem for regulators: platforms are being pulled into the news cycle by contested elections and geopolitical crises far more than by their own regulatory fights, and the countries most engaged with them are disproportionately the ones trying hardest to keep them out.

“Looking at the last 12 months of prediction markets, and the sheer media noise generated around them, it’s clear that trying to combat their rise has seen a similar spike in publicity,” said Nikoleta Kuncheva, lead researcher and project manager for CasinoReviews.net. “Rather than bans quietening the noise around the platforms, we’re seeing the opposite occur, highlighting that the current approach isn’t working for regulators. From gaining cut-through in restricted markets to huge interest around major political events, it’s clear that prediction markets have a place in the public conscience, and this will seemingly only grow as we head into the key midterm votes in the United States, as well as numerous elections throughout Europe.”